Gerry Czarnecki - "The Czar"

A Crystal Ball

The campaign for President marches on and it is clear that Obama and McCain will be facing each other in the fall…that is unless some catastrophic  event causes Obama to fall so far out of favor with the super delegates. Since that is highly unlikely, all the press and pundits have him anointed.

With the two “finalists,” it is clear that McCain will try to be more liberal on key issues and Obama will try to be more conservative on the rest. Indeed, the two candidates will reach for the “middle” and both will try to out middle the other. In many ways, McCain has a more middle legislative record than Obama, and a far more “reach across the aisle” record as well. Obama has campaigned on both, and in the general will lose on that comparison if the voters actually care about the facts.

That said, in my view, the voters do not care. McCain will be hurt with younger voters on age and will be badly hurt on the war with those who are tired of the war. He will also be hurt on the economy because he is a Republican and the Republicans will take the hit for a weak economy. The Republicans will be blamed for all ills in the society, and the “change” rhetoric of Obama will resonate with a major portion of the population. Obama on the other hand will lose many votes because of his liberal stance, his pastor and the simple fact that he is black.

The real question is, of all these factors, what will be the deciding factor to see who wins. In my view, the result is going to turn on age and race. Yes, if the majority of Americans are, when they get inside the voting booth, able to accept a young, black inexperienced unproven black leader, then Obama will win. If the racial divide is no too large, or if people believe that McCain is too old, Obama will win. If the opposite is true, he will lose.

I believe this because to paraphrase and recast what was said some time ago, “We have no choice, only an echo.” McCain and Obama, in the general election will attempt to “out middle” each other. Neither is willing to actually say what they believe in, the will say what they think the polls will tell them the public wants to hear. Oh, yes, McCain wants to be seen as a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, and Obama wants to be seen as a JFK Democrat, but the plain fact is, neither wants to be known for what they are. Obama is a far left liberal, bordering on black power advocate; McCain is a pandering, press hungry liberal cloaked in the shield of a “fiscal conservative.” They are both political opportunists, who simply have limited core principles they wish to be exposed. The irony is, no matter what your political persuasion, McCain is more genuine than Obama, but Obama is more effective communicator. So, as has become the plain facts, the better actor will likely win.

Obama in a Ditch

Yesterday, Obama "threw his pastor under the "PC bus." Yes, he needed to do that because the polls were driving him to a potential loss in Indiana and maybe even in North Carolina. Two losses there, could actually put serious pressure on the Obama "train." The numbers may well be stacked against the Clinton strategy, but there is no doubt, there is no credible, objective conclusion that can be drawn to protect him from the serious trap he is in.

By denying Wright, he will alienate many blacks and he may well actually lose blacks because his denial of Wright at this stage appears totally political, since it is impossible for any rational person to conclude that Obama did not "know of these absurd assertions by Wright. This type of vitriolic rage does not get hidden. There is no doubt that Wright made these outrageous comments regularly from his pulpit. This church this pastor represents the hard line, black power segment of that community. It is a racist church, and Obama sat there and became a part of that congregation while it was there.

Obama has no easy way out. He can not convince most people he was unaware; and he can not totally deny the church because the remainder of the black community will conclude that he is denying his color. There is no doubt that moderate democrats will be troubled by this experience. The radical left will follow Obama, in spite of all this, but they can not elect the President. he needs the middle, and between racial fears and anger at Wrights bigotry, Obama is in trouble with the middle.

The Democrats Dilemma

It is clear that the democrats who have fully expected to have a "walk" to the oval office, are putting themselves at risk. No doubt, there are lots of reasons why the Bush years should be setting up the Democrats with an easy victory. The plain fact is that neither of the two candidates have ben able to close out the other in the race to the nomination. Clinton had it to lose, and she appears to have done that. Obama has had a free pass for some time, but he has now begun to get tough questions, and has had few good answers.

The irony of this race is that the liberal agenda has a strong emotional pull in a stressed economy. The fact is that the tarnished reputations of each candidate are making it tough for them to capitalize on this. Obama has some serious problems with his associations, and Clinton has so much baggage from her husband's Presidency, that neither are going to be able to walk into the office on just issues. They are going to be hammered by the right on these issues, no matter who ends up the victor.

McCain may not have strong right support, but his more liberal bent is going to give the Democrats a real run for their money. The right may not be excited about his candidacy, but they know full well that he is a better option than any Democrat.

Republican Debate

Did you watch the debate last night? I did and it was a far cry from the last one conducted by MSNBC. Fox did a great job asking some pretty tough questions. I do not think that any candidate scored a victory, but Ron Paul sure scored a news bite coup, for Rudy Giuliani. His assertion that we should "listen to the people who attacked us" clearly is not going to curry favor with the typical "conservative voter."  Rudy must be delighted with the opportunity to show his "anti terror" credential, given that everybody on the right seems to want to attack him on his abortion stand.

The average voter ion the US may not be preoccupied with abortion, but the Republican party seems to be. Even though I may have an opinion on the issue, I am far more concerned, from a leadership standpoint on how the candidates stand on a much broader range of issues. It is time that the leaders of the Republican Party start to lead by focusing on issues that the middle care about. I know that the activists in the Republican Party tend be be more "right wing", but the party leaders, meaning those who want to be President, need to focus on the critic al issues that will face the next President. Unless the Republicans do this, they will be watching the swearing in of Hilary Clinton.

WHEN UNDER FIRE - ATTACK

The Political advisors would probably say the President Bush is out on the political stump, attempting to shore up the Republican party efforts to retain control of the Congress. It is impossible to disagree, these speeches are clearly designed to save his next two years. If the democrats gain control of the House, he is likely to see a serious effort to impeach him. If he loses control of the Senate, he could even see funding for the war cut to a level where he will have no alternative but to withdraw from Iraq.

All of that clearly gives him great motivation to rally the Republican base and to try regaining the support of the vast moderate population for his leadership. On the other hand, if you were to actually listen carefully to his speeches, you could easily be impressed by the fact that his policies on handling prisoners, wire taps, etc, have been effective in thwarting terrorists attacks. So many people who have wanted support him have asked, where has he been?

Well we can easily recognize that he did have national security reasons why he did not let us know what was happening. On the other hand, the leadership lesson for all of us to learn is that, when you have a problem, do not let it fester. Perceptions will continue to grow based on what people "think." If you are "under attack" then you must react, not with overtly reacting, but focusing directly on the issues. I can not tell you how important it is to deal with issues directly. Open, direct focus on a negative issue, early, rather than late, is the key. The key is, once a perception is formed, it is at least twice as difficult to change that perception as it is to avoid it from being formed.

SEARCHING FOR A VISION THAT RESONATES

Today, President Bush tried, once again to define his vision for the War on Terror. His problem is that the American public is not listening. I actually believe that his speech today was "spot on" to the real reason we must focus on victory (NOT DEFEAT OR RETREAT) in Iraq, but the American public is not buying it.

This is a critical lesson for every leader who wants to set the vision for his/her organization.  Our associates will follow a rational and well thought through and passionate vision, but...if the results of our execution are short of success, eventually the vision will, no matter how correct, be doubted. Vision is a great idea,, but execution is essential to maintain the commitment of those being lead.

A LACK OF WILL

It has become painfully obvious that the American will to persist in Iraq has eroded to a level that there is a very high probability that there will be a major defeat for the Republicans in the fall elections. President Bush has done a terrible job of defending the war effort and has not been successful in selling the relevancy of the war in Iraq to the war against the Islamic radicals. This failure has severely damaged the Republican candidates for both the House, and now the Senate as well.

As most of you who have followed this Blog, I was not a supporter of the initial invasion of Iraq. I thought that Bush moved too quickly, and needed more international support for the invasion, mostly because I did not want us to have to wage the war "alone." Much to my chagrin, I was probably right in those concerns, but that said, I have been a staunch supporter of concluding in Iraq with a victory, but even I have become disenchanted with the administration prosecution of the war. There is no doubt that we are in a terrible morass, and victory seems a long time off.

My great fear is, as I have also expressed here several times, that we will turn the Iraq war into another pathetic "Vietnam type retreat." The problem with that mistake is that in Vietnam, all we lost was South East Asia. A similar disaster in Iraq could mean the loss of the free world's ability to survive. I know that is a deep, dark forecast, but I truly believe that the free world is at war with the Islamic radicals and we must win in order to keep our way of life. There is no question that these people are out to destroy our way of life and to impose Islamic society on us.

I want to believe that the Democrats will not "cut and run" but I am afraid that they will move out too soon and the Iraqi government will collapse under the pressure of the Iranian invaders. If the Shiites prevail, then Iran will essentially control the Middle East.

All of this leads me to believe that a Republican loss in both Houses of the Congress will lead the US into a period of substantial decline in influence in the world. If we leave Iraq in chaos, there will be no value to our being a friend.

AFTER A LONG ABSENCE

It has been a very long time since I have written, and much has transpired in the political arena since then. President Bush has fallen dramatically in the polls and the Republican led Congress has fallen to even lower levels. In short, the conservative movement is stalled at best, perhaps even failing. In the immigration debate, the Senate has taken the politically convenient way out in an attempt to "pander to every constituency." Illegals and businesses alike get a pass, and the American public gets the "sop" of a small segment of real fence designed to appease them rather than to actually stop the illegal flow. I for one, am pretty disappointed in all of the political establishment, and am afraid I see little more than a "food fight" over the Senate and House Bills. My guess is, they will find it virtually impossible to find a "middle ground" that the conference committee can agree on.

On the other hand, we now have a truly sad state affairs in Iraq. No it is not that we have a new government that is probably too weak to control the insurgents, and no it is not the strength of the insurgents. What is truly sad is the reports that a group of Marines may have massacred a large number of Iraqi civilians. That is truly devastating, because it will now give fresh meat to the pacifist, weak kneed American left who want to pull out of Iraq, just as they did in Vietnam.

I am old enough to be a Vietnam era Army veteran, and I can tell you that I have lived with the terrible memory of the disdain the military experienced after Vietnam. N matter how much the left, or for that matter, the supposedly resolved right, tries to argue to the contrary, the United States lost the war in Vietnam, not on the battle field, but in the homeland.

What sickens me is that the American resolve to win a War is so short term, that if we were fighting World War II today, we would be getting ready to learn either German or Japanese and we would be preparing for the extermination of every Jew in the world. Our resolve is also tainted by what can only be considered a lack of courage. Yes, courage...Courage of conviction and courage to fight for what we believe in, rather than to wish it will prevail. This is not a macho male thing, it is a plain fact of human existence that if a society looses its will to fight for it rights and principles, it will perish, no matter what the quality of the society and the merits of the "way of life."

If we continue to fail the way of freedom, we shall perish. I pray that we can find a way to reverse the decline on our will and strength, but I fear that we are on our way to losing the very freedom our founders envisioned for themselves and succeeding generations.

Our only hope is that the real American spirit finds a way to throw out the political class that allows itself to be compromised. We, the citizens of these United States must decide that we believe in core values and principles of the republic and fight for them in the arena of ideas.

GLOBAL CRISIS

The latest reports on "Cartoongate" suggest that this is becoming a "Global Crisis." Well, my view is that they are both right and sadly, very wrong. They are right, we have a "Global Crisis," but the crisis has very little to do with the cartoons. The crisis has existed for years, not just caused by the creation of the cartoons.

These cartoons are crude, insensitive and frankly in simply bad taste, but then so are thousands of such cartoons that are created and published by virtually all the newspapers of the world. The latest, truly offensive example of a cartoon in the United States is the Rumsfeld "battle hardened" cartoon depicting a quadriplegic soldier. So offensive and in such bad taste was this cartoon, that the entire group of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Military wrote a letter objecting to the cartoons. What was the reaction of much of the press and the "liberal left"...They criticized the Joint Chiefs for an attempt to "intimidate" the press. PATHETIC!!!

On the other hand, the cartoons about the great Muslim prophet were in equally bad taste. What was the reaction by those offended? Burning buildings, riots in the streets, killings and the rage of violence against non-Muslims. How can these reactions be equated. They can not be, and any body who tries, in my judgment is feeding the pandering of the violent and radical Muslims who have created their own religion. Yes, this "radicalized Islamic religion" is becoming a "mainstream Islam" throughout the Middle East. They are not a tiny minority,

These "radical Muslims" are not a trivial minority, they represent a large segment of the Islamic world and they are an emerging power base throughout that region, and influence governments daily.  They are encouraged and financed by Saudi citizens, the Syrian government, finance Hamas in Palestine and bread radical Muslims all over the world. The moderates...where are they? Frankly, they are hiding under their veils and tunics. They are so intimidated by these violent radical "Virgin hunting" fanatics, that they run for cover every time one of these absurd incidents occur. They condemn the cartoons, while saying nothing about be-headings of "infidels."

The plain fact is, we are engaged in a world War...a Religious World War. This is not a war against terrorists, it is a war against a new Muslim sect that had interpreted an ancient, and often violence ridden, Koran as a mandate to kill the infidels. Remember, Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus and secularists are all infidels. That means that virtually all of civilized society in the world is outside their definition of acceptable humans. It is this "sect's" objective to rule the world, even if it means they will destroy it. And destroy it they will, if we in the world of "infidels" do not rise up and stop these people, no animals.

This war is a religious war, not just a war of clashing cultures. Unfortunately, virtually all wars have been fought on the basis of some theology, the problem is this enemy is committed to dying, not living. Their goal is to die for Allah, not live for God or the good of humanity. No enemy in my lifetime has wanted to win the war by destroying life itself; the typical enemy had been interested in winning, in order to impose their will on the society. These people want to destroy all who do not believe as they do. That means YOU!

In the coming Posts, I plan to continue this line of thinking. I believe that it is essential that we confront this enemy in any way we can. These people rioting over the cartoons are actually doing me a favor. They are exposing themselves for what they are...Thugs and radical fanatics who believe that anybody not Muslim should die. If we want a civilization based on our values to survive this century, we must rise up and stop pandering to the new Muslim Sect.

"Domestic Spying" - A Wrong Name, But Correct Concern

It has been a while since I have posted commentary, not because I lost interest, but because I have been sitting back watching the unfolding of the debate on the Terrorist Surveillance program. I will comment that, I stand by my earlier belief, this program is essential, but the President should have run it by the FISA Court anyhow, AFTER THE FACT. I am convinced that the Congress is not going to buy his argument that he did not need to. I suspect that the FISA Court will eventually be asked to render and opinion, and I also suspect that it will say, "Ok to proceed without us, but you should have reported it to us after the fact." There are simply too many citizens who think it should be done to say do not do it, but there are also too many citizens and politicians who think it should have been reported.

All of that said, I believe that the President must stand by his position, even though it does not resonate with the Congress. He needs to preserve his right to do those things necessary to "wage war," however, he also needs to deal with the reality that the FISA Court probably has a "ratification" role in all this.